Time is not on the Iranian regime’s side. The 40-year-old clerical regime, which has survived this long because of its iron grip on the Iranian people while carrying out terrorist operations and proxy wars abroad, is losing its lever of powers.
The regime is quickly approaching its collapse for the below reasons:
- 10 million outraged unemployed Iranians including young people and university graduates, who according to the regime, make up more than 40% of the unemployed.
- 20 million people who have lost their savings to Revolutionary Guards-affiliated credit organizations.
- An exponential spike in prices and inflation which acts as a spark in an explosive society. In the past year, the value of Iran’s currency has fallen by 80% compared to the dollar which has led to a sharp fall in the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians. This has wiped out Iran’s middle class bringing a total of 80% of the population under the line of poverty.
- Millions of retirees, workers, teachers, and government employees have overdue salaries. Many have taken to the streets in protest, to no avail.
- Shocking environmental crises such as air pollution, the drying out of lakes and environmental hazards, which are rooted in 40 years of government corruption and mismanagement. These issues coupled with the billions of dollars in damages to 25 provinces ravaged by recent floods have left Iran in ruins. The clerical regime does not want and cannot find a solution to these problems.
- The increasing power struggle at to the top of the hierarchy has created a deep schism in the clerical regime. The ongoing struggle between the hardliners and the so-called reformist faction over the administration of the country’s important decisions such as negotiating with the United States or moving forward on the military front has made the two factions hostile and vengeful towards each other.
- The end of the era of appeasement policy and handing out aid to a regime which had become the regional bully ended with the Trump administration. Now the US is carrying out a “maximum pressure” campaign which is battering the already weak regime from all sides. Iran is putting its cards on a failed re-election for Trump hoping that the President’s term will end in 2020.
- The rise of the entire Middle East and Arab countries against the clerical regime’s meddling in the region, including the recent Arab Summit in Mecca, which called on all Arab countries to end Iran’s reign of terror and malicious activities in the region.
- Khamenei’s illness and his succession crisis, which will lead to an escalation of conflict at the top of the regime.
- The US listing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, which has limited its power in domestic suppression and external terrorism. The IRGC cannot even pay its regional henchmen, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
- The separation of personnel from the Basij, IRGC, army and the police who are disenchanted and afraid of the regime’s future and mass popular protests.
- The regime has limitations in carrying out mass suppression campaigns due to Iranian’s easy access to the internet. Any news and event in Iran is quickly shared on the worldwide net by activists and will spread around the world.
The clerical regime has no solutions to overcome its current challenges. Many believe that a popular uprising is in the works to sweep away the regime for good.