Iran’s Supreme Leader told Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a June 13 meeting that he thought that US President Trump unworthy of a response on Iran negotiations. Before this, Ali Khamenei said that he thought talks with the US were like “poison”.
The reason Iran’s Supreme Leader called negotiations “poison” was because he knew better than anyone that such talks would eventually be the end of Iran’s clerical regime.
The regime is in a complete deadlock due to the US’s maximum pressure campaign which includes crippling sanctions. Its oil sales have gone under half a million barrels per day which is rapidly nearing zero barrels.
Meanwhile, the US has brought a massive military force to the region with the goal of countering Iran’s threats.
The regime is also facing a regional isolation like never before especially after the 3rd Mecca summit.
The regime’s policy of looking to the “East” for help has not borne any fruit for the regime with Russia explicitly saying that it does not want to play a part in “easing” regional tensions.
And as most observers say, the most important factor playing against the regime is a society on the verge of explosion, with millions of angry Iranians waiting to pull the regime down for good.
It is under these conditions that the regime has turned to a rather contradictory and somewhat confusing policy. This policy, which is not surprising coming from an irrational, desperate regime, includes attacking oil tankers as a supposed show of power despite hints by Donald Trump about possible negotiations with Iran.
Although Iran is terrified of heightened tensions that may lead to an attack against its interests, it seems that it is stuck in a paradox and is forced to inevitably lead the situation into further tension.
This policy seems to essentially stem from the regime’s desperate need to give its internal forces some much needed spirit and mental strength especially disenchanted Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps members and Basij forces, tasked with suppressing internal protests, as a way to maintain the main pillars of its regressive state.
Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit recently warned Iran to “be careful and reverse course” in relation to the attack on the oil tankers.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that his country “won’t hesitate” to tackle any threats to the kingdom.
Germany’s foreign minister also commented on the explosive conditions in the region before his trip to Tehran.
“The danger that miscalculations, misunderstandings and provocations in a very tense region could lead to unpredictable consequences is clear there,” Maas’s office said in a statement on Saturday.
This is while Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan highlighted to reporters on Friday that the recent oil tanker attacks were not only a “U.S. situation,” saying the focus now was to “build international consensus to this international problem.”
When the US’s policy is to build a global consensus, it is clear that it will use all its power to make such a thing happen.
Therefore, it would seem that the direction of developments will go towards heightened regional tensions.
The United States wants to bring the regime to the negotiating table with its maximum pressure campaign and with certain conditions that are impossible for the regime to meet. What the US does not seem to understand is that as US officials have said in the past, this is not a normal regime and does not have the capacity nor the power to sit and talk. If Iran agrees to back down from its terrorism, regional intervention, and its missile and nuclear program, it is no longer the “clerical regime of Iran”.
On the other hand, sending the German Foreign Minister and the Japanese Prime Minister to Tehran to open the door for Iran negotiations was essentially, as some regime affiliated analyst have also understood, a kind of ultimatum to regime.
The United States will soon conclude that this regime is non-negotiable to the extent that it attacks Japanese oil tankers a few hours before the Japanese Prime Minister was to meet with its Supreme Leader for an invite to negotiations.