The Iranian government is facing a plethora of challenges before sanctions hit its oil industry in November.
Protests in recent months inside Iran have escalated to a new peak. In the past week there have been on average over 100 protests recorded on a daily basis.
Meanwhile, the nationwide protest of truck drivers has entered its second week, in a new round of unrest.
Iran’s judiciary and law enforcement systems have publicly threatened to arrest those who participate in this legitimate protest. They have also threatened to react according to judiciary protocols and have already arrested a large number of the drivers.
The Iranian regime is trying to keep the Iranian people silent until November by using threats and creating psychological-economic warfare. Iran wants to show they don’t have a serious problem and everything is under control. This way it can hope to prevent people from other social strata joining in uprisings similar to the truckers’ strike.
Iran has made a few approaches during recent weeks to ease the wave of the impending sanctions.
Iran held a number of meetings on the sideline of the UN General Assembly in New York. The Iranian delegation met with European countries, as Iran’s media and officials put it. Iran’s state media also suggested that Zarif secured a free-dollars trade with Europe in order to continue their economic trades.
In another attempt, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani held talks with Mrs. Christine Lagarde, the Chairman of the International Monetary Fund.
Rouhani didn’t achieve anything significant because the International Monetary Fund refused to give back debts to Iran.
Separately, the Foreign Ministry spokesman of Iran, Bahram Ghassemi, said Iran and Europe are looking for a finance mechanism that will defy the US sanctions.
“A new financial system is close to being settled with the Europeans. This is in the wake of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran. But because of special matters, I cannot pass out the details,” explained the spokesman at a news conference on October 2.
It is clear that no specific agreement was reached that Iran can benefit from. Otherwise Iran wouldn’t delay one bit to announce it and use it as a helping hand out of the current crisis.
If what Iran wants to paint as reality was true we wouldn’t be seeing a growing outflow of European companies from the commercial sphere with Iran. No European firm, putting its strategic interests first, would go against the United States to keep deals with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Experts within the Iranian government are disappointed with Europe. Hassan Beheshtipour, a nuclear expert, suggested a gap between European powers and European trade owners.
“Europeans have a wide range of commercial ties with the United States and European companies are not going to be taking orders from the European governments,” said Beheshtipour during an interview with the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA).
Failed bid to trade with the Euro
All financial and banking transactions in the world are conducted with the Dollar. Now, at a stage where Iran stands a tip toe away from falling into the land of chaos, it has chosen to spin the global financial order.
What Iran had wished for was the Euro to take over from the Dollar so Iran’s economy could perhaps survive. The Euro was introduced in 2002, but the fact is the currency hasn’t leveled internationally with the Dollar.
“The government [Iran] recently injected dollars into the money flow to control exchange rates. This way it could take some pressure off the Bazaar,” the Etemade state-run Newspaper wrote on October 2.
“We shouldn’t forget that the country is tied up in an economic mess,” the daily added.
“Production, which is our driving engine doesn’t look good. The previous sanctions hadn’t been completely lifted and new sanctions have been imposed. The European Union has not made any practical support on behalf of Iran,” Etemad wrote.
Despite all that the Iranian regime had hoped for, oil sanctions will be imposed in November. Reducing Iran’s oil revenues will reduce its military capability and also diminish law enforcement actions. The Iranian government will be at its weakest point. And that is when protests by the people will be taken very seriously by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.